Posted by
On the Right on Friday, September 05, 2008 10:44:41 PM
Two things need saying about Friday's jobs data showing marked
deterioration in the U.S. economy. One, it's not as bad as it looks.
And two, it might get worse if policymakers do nothing.
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Start with the first point. Yes, the unemployment rate surged to
6.1% in August from 5.7% in July and 5% at the end of 2007. And, yes,
the U.S. shed 84,000 jobs for the month, bringing the year-to-date toll
to 605,000. Hardly a stellar performance, and one that certainly points
to worsening conditions.
But it's also worth noting that 6.1% unemployment is pretty normal.
That's right: Since 1970, the jobless rate has averaged 6.1%.
Again, that doesn't mean it's a good report. Far from it. Just that
it's not a cataclysm, or as some foolishly suggest, a "depression." And
other data in the report suggest things aren't so bad, at least not yet.
Start with Congress. It must keep Bush's stimulative cuts in place. If
not, it risks a recession for which Congress alone — a Democratic
Congress — will be blamed.
Finally, there's oil. Drilling for oil would enhance our national
security by denying petrotyrants from Moscow to Tehran to Caracas the
funds they need to harass America and its allies.
But it would do even more. Drilling off our coasts, in Alaska's
National Wildlife Refuge, below the Arctic seas and in the Far West's
massive oil-shale deposits would add hundreds of billions of barrels to
our reserves and push oil prices down. This would set off an economic
boom and help pull the world out of the recession that falling global
markets now seem to be signaling.